ZOU Jian; LONG Hua-lou. The Variation of Farmland Use and the Security Pattern of Grain Production in China since 1978. Journal of Natural Resources, 2009, 24(8): 1366-1377. Abstract: With rapid development of China's economy,the farmland use pattern has greatly changed since economic reforms were launched in 1978.On the one hand,rapid industrialization and urbanization has resulted in the agricultural to non-agricultural land conversion,and some farmland idle due to the massive and sustained flow of rural-to-urban labor migration;on the other hand,economic development may ensure the improvement of infrastructure for agricultural production,and the enhancement of farmland intensive use l... Keywords: farmland quality; intensive land use; farmland-grain elasticity coefficient; grain production; security pattern;邹健, 龙花楼. 改革开放以来中国耕地利用与粮食生产安全格局变动研究. 自然资源学报, 2009, 24(8): 1366-1377. 摘要：利用农业统计数据,分析自改革开放以来我国耕地集约利用水平的时空动态格局,构建粮耕弹性系数来反映耕地资源变化与粮食生产的互动关系。揭示出:①耕地投入的增加和质量的提升在一定程度上缓解了改革开放以来我国耕地资源严重流失给粮食生产安全带来的压力;②自改革开放以来,全国耕地集约利用水平呈现由经济快速发展带来的普遍性提升局面,并随着经济发展程度及其增长速率由东南沿海向内陆递减,耕地集约利用水平的提升速率也呈现由东南沿海向内陆梯级递减态势, 同时这种提升态势将随着时间和经济发展而出现由沿海地区向内地的推移;③耕地集约利用程度的不断提升,并不一定会带来粮食产量的持续稳定增长。耕地集约利用增长的边际效用递减特性,使得在经济较发达的情况下,粮食生产安全的保障已逐步由耕地集约利用水平的提升转向了耕地面积的保护,由此导致耕地资源的数量成为了左右粮食生产安全的关键,这也为当今制定严格的耕地保护目标和战略提供了现实的科学依据。 关键词： 耕地质量; 土地集约利用; 粮耕弹性系数; 粮食生产; 安全格局;